Presidential Battleground States

I believe there’s about a 1.5 – 2.0% wishful liberal bias in the polls.  The only proof will be on election day, but that’s my gut feel.  With that in mind, here’s my opinion on the Presidential battleground states deemed so this evening by RealClearPolitics.com:

  • Colorado: Tied                                (probably Romney)
  • Florida: Romney +1.8%                (will go Romney)
  • Iowa: Obama +2.3%                      (up for grabs)
  • Michigan: Obama +4.0%              (probably Obama)
  • N. Carolina: Romney +3.8%        (will go Romney)
  • Nevada: Obama +2.4%                 (probably Obama)
  • New Hampshire: Obama +2.0% (up for grabs)
  • Ohio: Obama +1.9%                       (up for grabs)
  • Pennsylvania: Obama +4.7%       (probably Obama)
  • Virginia: Tied                                   (probably Romney)
  • Wisconsin: Obama +2.3%             (up for grabs)

If you put these results into the Build Your Own Map page at RCP here’s what you get:

  • Romney: 257
  • Obama: 243
  • Tossups: 38 (IA=6, NH=4, WI=10, OH=18)

(Reminder — 270 electoral votes are needed to win.)

If I’m right, then Romney either needs to win Ohio, or win Wisconsin and one of the others (Iowa or New Hampshire).

Speaking of Wisconsin, here’s an article by pollster Scott Rasmussen entitled Wisconsin May Be the New Ohio.

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(photo credit)

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About Necessary and Proper

Jeff believes in the Individual's ability to excel when liberty and freedom of choice are protected. Also believes in the Community's ability to take care of the vast majority of its own issues and needs when the federal government leaves the Community's resources and sphere of control alone. State and local choice produce better results than centralized federal control. https://necessaryandpropergovt.wordpress.com/
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8 Responses to Presidential Battleground States

  1. Matt says:

    I’m a Wisconsinite. I’ll be voting Romney. 🙂

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    • Hi Matt!

      Conservatives nationwide are extremely proud of you and your peers in Wisconsin the last couple years. You’re the trailblazers.

      Please comment at more length and give us your reading on how you see the next 10 days in your state. Is the Ryan connection going to pay dividends? What about your senate race?

      Please stay in touch here.

      – Jeff

      Like

      • Matt says:

        I HOPE the Ryan connection pays dividends. I think the polls are going to tighten in Wisconsin over the next week, but I’m also relatively new to the state…so I actually know a lot more about Indiana politics than Wisconsin politics, haha.

        I’m just glad to be living in a swing state. 🙂 I proudly voted for Walker last summer. Maybe I’m being optimistic, but I really think Wisconsin residents (Dane County excluded) are starting to see through the broken liberal agenda.

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  2. Ohio does seem to be the key. With the charges which have been fired back and forth let’s hope that everything doesn’t hinge on 1000 questionable votes in Ohio.

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  3. rmekrnl says:

    According to some inside polling I heard about, it looks like Romney will also win Iowa.

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  4. Having just been in NH recently, I saw an awful lot of Romney signs, and very few Obama signs. Obviously circumstantial, but possibly telling.

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  5. Robertson says:

    Colorado: Tied (probably Romney)

    Hmm. It looks like there was a conservative bias in the media. How strange.

    Like

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